Who gets the P45 first?

Politics is a cruel business subject to the vicissitudes of unexpected events.

Which is a philosophical way of asking who will be the first minister forced from office in the Brown era?

Poor old Jacqui Smith is already in the dog house today over whether her department covered up the fact that thousands of illegal immigrants were erroneously cleared to work in the security industry.

Add to that the on-going confusion about the pre-charge detention legislation and Ms. Smith looks set for a rough time. Holding the Home Affairs brief is invariably a great career move in Opposition but disastrous in Government.

This morning’s Telegraph parliamentary sketch has some unflattering things to say about Schools Secretary Ed Balls, claiming he is the “weakest parliamentary performer in the Cabinet.” It’s true that the PM’s closest political ally is not the most impressive rhetorician around, but he is surely bright enough to work on that part of his game. But he will have to move sharpish. There is nothing the media loves more than taking a scalp from a minister close to the PM (does the name Stephen Byers ring a bell?)

Those other Brownite protégés Douglas Alexander and Ed Milliband were both burnt by advocating the election-that-never-was. But both are fortunate enough to have lower profile jobs than will keep them out of the firing line until their fortunes improve.

The other Miliband, David, will need all his silky skills as foreign secretary to make sure he doesn’t become the mouthpiece for another unpopular war as the drumbeat of US agitation against Iran grows louder.

Similarly that other old smoothy, Alan Johnson, has to explain to the NHS why it needs to pull its finger out and deliver a lot more on a substantially less generous comprehensive spending review settlement than it has enjoyed in the last few years.

Chancellor Alistair Darling, the proverbial “safe pair of hands,” had the curve ball of Northern Rock to deal with. He fared so-so in the initial skirmish, but a major credit crunch, coupled with a falling housing market really would make his eyebrows go grey. Similarly, I wouldn’t want to be his Number Two, Andy Burnham, if the pack of cards comes tumbling down.

That other narcoleptic Caledonian, Des Browne, remains the front man for on-going operations in Afghanistan and Iraq. Defence is hardly a comfortable seat at the best of times, but Browne’s less than impressive communications skills make it difficult for him to punch his way out of tight corners.

Transport Secretary, Ruth Kelly, will have to grapple with that 300lb gorilla of a problem, road pricing. One of those issues which Ministers and Officials want to drive through, so to speak, but is full of political poison. The fall-out of a botched implementation in Greater Manchester may even cost Kelly her marginal Bolton West seat.

Meanwhile the battle-scarred veterans of Blairism seem to have found safer berths in the Brown Cabinet. Geoff Hoon must be thanking his lucky stars he can tuck himself out of harm’s way away in No 12 Downing Street as Chief Whip. Hazel Blears and John Hutton coast, respectively, in the lower profile communities and business portfolios.

Those deputy leadership blow-outs, Hilary Benn and Peter Hain, got a reasonable return on their misfiring campaigns with the middle-ranking jobs of environment and pensions’ secretary.

All in all, the Brownites hold the more sensitive briefs (for that read ‘where things can go wrong’). But a recurrent hallmark among the Brownites is that their intellectual ability is out of whack with their presentational skills. Put another way, they are fine when things are going well, but on the backfoot seem decidedly wobbly.

As the honeymoon quickly receeds, we will doubtless soon see for whom the political grim reaper comes calling first...